Putin Plays His Trump Card(s)

Trump met with Putin in Alaska to seek an end to the Ukraine – Russa War. It is sure to be historic, but then from the perspective of how one defines and considers the term ‘historic’ there really isn’t any other choice as all things are historic. If you are using ‘historic’ to mean that the meeting will truly be significant and meaningful, the meeting will satisfy this meaning regardless of its outcome. What matters isn’t will it be a topic of an overwhelming stream of pointless and uninformative discussion and debate (I use the word debate loosely here.)

Whether the Putin – Trump get together will be a success, a disaster, a waste of time, or a classic failure must remain for the future to determine. However, we can be sure that Trump will proclaim that he succeeded regardless of the reality of the results. This is just an obvious compulsive behavior exhibited daily. Surprisingly, even Trump recognizes that he may not be able to accomplish anything that come even close to advancing peace. He has given himself a 25% chance of failure, though not stated in those terms. Such a failure will be ascribed to the poor leadership of Putin and Zelensky, not to himself. After all, “only he” can stop the war; just like “it would not have happened if he had been president”.

The problem with Trump’s predictable claims is that they are in ‘his’ opinion and not based on any rational or logical basis. Certainly, the laws of physics and any moderately competent STEM-oriented problem-solving analysis and assessment would invalidate the inanity of his sociopathic and egomaniacal mode of operation. Consider the contradictory aspect of Trump asserting that he knows how to end the war but doesn’t even know all the strategies that could be used in accomplishing that task. Now, to be fair; Trump isn’t alone in this shortcoming. None of his advisers appear to know any of the superior strategies that would be more productive either. If Sec. of State Rubio has a better plan, he has failed to present it or get Trump on board.

Even other world leaders, especially those of NATO countries, are lost and confused in the fog of this war. They have fears, concerns, and interests but haven’t put forth any alternate, meaningful, or practical strategy for bringing the war to even a cease-fire. Those few nations that support Russia’s war against Ukraine clearly don’t have any strategies for ending the war short of turning Ukraine over to Putin.

While not openly advocating for Russia in the war, China has not shown any interest in bringing the war to an end. The surprising aspect of this is that China has the most to gain from stepping forward with a smart and productive strategy that would end the war. I don’t believe that they are holding back on putting such a plan forward. I don’t think they have or can conceive of better approaches any more than all the other nations cannot. China and Xi are missing the moment, but then it is more likely for world leaders to fail at leading than it is for them to recognize the opportunities and benefits of pursing intelligent and beneficial approaches to domestic issues let alone international ones. Like so many China is missing opportunities here.

On the domestic front, there is no leadership emerging from either the Republican party or from the Democratic party. This is expectable from the Republican party, they must follow Trump no matter what; and there is and never has been any evidence that they have any better strategy.

The Democrats while expressing their support for Ukraine have not shown any inclination or aptitude for presenting any superior strategy than Trump’s. This is a huge lost opportunity for the Democrats, or a Democrat that wants to show true leadership skills. The reasons for Democrats missing the opportunities presented by the Ukraine – Russia War are likely similar to why Trump and the Republicans don’t or can’t see them. They are no better at critical thinking and problem-solving then the Republicans. Perhaps this could be due to their heavy reliance on following old approaches and themes without any consideration of looking at the issues, problems, and current situation anew.

So, what should we expect  from the Trump – Putin meeting? Well that will follow from the strategy(ies) that Trump will pursue in dealing with Putin. Given the likely Trump strategy options, which are basically:

1. Cease-fire then peace agreement (which is a goal not a strategy)

2. Cease-fire then ??? (which is still a non-strategy)

3. Territory transfers/swaps/concessions that give Russia Ukrainian land

4. Severe “consequences” for Russia if Putin doesn’t agree to cease-fire, which Putin did not. And after Friday’s meeting this “strategy” appears to have been discarded (and then ???)

5. Opposite of severe consequences, Trump grants economic incentives (rewards)

6. Cut and Run strategy: I tried and they want to keep killing, I am going home

7. Some other false façade ‘Success!’ claim which abandons Ukraine & US interests

8. The latest strategy is “Take more time to decide how to act.”

There isn’t much that won’t be a win for Putin, a loss for Ukraine (and Europe), and a Trump version of the Bush “Mission Accomplished” victory declaration.

While Trump will ‘succeed’ by his own proclamation, it isn’t clear that any of the above strategies are actual successes for America, for Trump, the world, and certainly not Ukraine. The actual determination of what the outcome is and whether it is an historically grand accomplishment by Trump, a catastrophic failure (which Trump will blame others for), or a transient middling success/failure will await the judgement of history and the fruit that the seeds planted produce.

There is one aspect in which Trump will win. He will win against the Democrats because they won’t or can’t seize the moment to lead. Mostly this Democratic failure will be due to their not knowing what their opportunities are, since they can’t recognize them nor even choose to seek those strategic opportunities out.

The key effort that Democrats are missing is that to solve a problem and develop a strategy is that you must look at “all the options” and assess which provide a path to reaching your desired goals and outcomes.

The major missing ingredient for all parties is not exploring better strategies, which they will say don’t exist. If you don’t look, you will not find them.