How To Pick Your Politician and Be Safe

The 2022 Midterms are almost upon us; and one of the popular issues is crime. It might have struck you as odd that I used the term “popular” rather than “important” or “major” because it doesn’t really fit. At least, it doesn’t fit unless you think ‘politically’. I don’t mean ‘politically’ because it is ‘important’ to the public, our society, or nation; but because it is an excellent political campaign narrative. Politicians like to tell you that their opponent(s) are causing crime to get worse and that “they” will save you from this rise in crime. “They” will make you safe. If you don’t believe this, think back to every political campaign you can ever remember, and see if someone isn’t promising to ‘stop’ crime.

Now, there is nothing wrong with ‘fix’ any crime problem that there is. That would be a tremendous boon to the nation. And given all the politicians that have ‘promised’ to ‘fix’ crime there must not be any to deal with today. Except there seems to always be crime. I would appear the politicians are failing to deliver repeatedly. This would explain why voters voted for them. Failure to deliver is what the public expected.

But we all know that there are differences between different politicians and different political parties on how well they deal with crime, or more pointedly fail to deal with it. It seems that it is time for a quick test. It is only fair to point out that it is very uncertain who’s intelligence is being truly tested but then that seems to conform perfectly with how politicians are assessed and voters make their decisions.

Let the test begin.

Question 1: Does one political party deals with crime more effectively and if so, which one? A. Democratic B. Republican C. Neither D. I don’t know

Question 2: If we assume your answer to Question 1 is correct, is there anything you/we expect to see if we examined crime data from the perspective of which party controls each state’s legislative body? To make it more specific, by looking at per-capita homicides by firearms what are things concerning these deaths that could be projected based upon the political party, if either, that you expect to be more effective? A. There would be fewer firearm deaths in states with legislatures of the party I identified. B. There would be more firearm deaths in states with legislatures of the party I identified. C. There would be no difference in firearm deaths in state based upon party I identified. D. I don’t know.

Question 3: If firearm deaths increased from year to year, would the per-capita death rate increase more or less for the states with legislatures of the party you identified? A. Increases would be less than states of the other political legislatures. B. Increases would be more than states of the other political legislatures. C. There would be no meaningful differences between states of different political legislatures. D. I don’t know.

Question 4: Of the four largest population states (CA, FL, NY, TX) which of these, if any, are higher/lower than or same-as the US average per-capita death rate for firearm homicides? Pick one for each state. A. CA – higher / lower / same-as US average B. TX – higher / lower / same-as US average C. NY – higher / lower / same-as US average D. FL – higher / lower / same-as US average

Question 5: What political party do you think is better for handling the issue of crime? Would it apply to firearm homicides death rates as well? A. Democrat. Yes. B. Democrat. No. C. Republican. Yes. D. Republican. No. E. Neither.

That was easy, wasn’t it? As you read the answers, you will need to reconcile your answers with the charts below. If your answers and the charts do not logically agree then there’s a problem and it is not the data in the charts.

Answer to Question 1: This is a reference point question. Your answer is what it is, and on the face of it is not invalid at this point in the assessment of the consistency of your answer with the facts.

Answer to Question 2: A more ‘effective’ legislature on crime, in this case firearm homicides, ought to be less likely than a state which is less ‘effective’ on this type of crime. Of course states vary widely on many factors, but if the general principle is true it is likely that it would show up in the data. See Chart 1 – Firearm Homicide Per-capita Deaths by State Legislatures’ Party.

Answer to Question 3: The impact of more ‘effective’ legislatures over time ought to cause the Firearm Homicide Death rates to improve relative to less ‘effective’ legislatures over time. The implication of it staying the ‘same’ implies that the party in power doesn’t make a meaningful difference in crime. If the death rates get worse for the ‘more’ effective legislatures there is a logical problem. You would have to come up with some explanation of some other factor(s) that is more impactful, and that the legislature did not know about or did not know how to deal with ‘effectively’.

Answer to Question 4: Two states are Republican lead legislatures and governors (FL and TX). The other two (CA and NY) are Democratic lead legislatures and governors. These four states represent roughly 1/3 of the US population. Each of the two states take corresponding positions on gun issues aligned with their respective political parties in leadership. Compared to the National average Firearm Homicide per-capita death rate, it is the two Democratic states that are discernably below the US average and both FL and TX are close to the US average. See Chart 2. Additionally, the two Republican states are getting increasingly ‘worse’ than CA and NY. Given that FL and TX are not that much higher than the US average, they are basically at the average as of the 2020 data. This implies that there are some states with much higher Firearm Death rates than FL or TX. As a confirmation test, you could postulate what the likely legislative political alignment might be.

Answer to Question 5: If crime is an election issue for you and you already know the party you are voting for, has the party choice you’ve made performed as expected on per-capita firearm deaths? A. Yes, I am voting Republican and the answers are what I expected. B. Yes, I am voting Democratic and the answers are what I expected. C. No, I am voting Republican and the answers are not what I expected. D. No, I am voting Democratic and the answers are not what I expected. E. I haven’t decided yet, but the answers are what I expected. F. I haven’t decided yet, but the answers are not what I expected.

What Do We Know Now?

It seems that the common/conventional wisdom about crime and which political party is most ‘effective’ in handling it that there may be some grounds for calling that into question. Perhaps Firearm Homicides are not a good measure of who ‘controls’ and ‘manages’ crime better. This could be assessed of course, all that we need to do is pick some other data to use that also relates to crime.

The other thing that we know is that what is claimed or expected or thought to be true is not the same as what can be substantiated with facts. You can believe what you choose, but can you prove it? We also know that politicians and political parties must be remarkable inept in confronting issues. Not one of the parties, but both of them. Would it be smart to concede a major issue in a political campaign if you can argue that you actually hold the better position? Likewise, would it be prudent to claim a position that could be easily challenged if there were just someone moderately competent who can look at readily available data? The answer here is no, it would not be very intelligent.

Chart 1 - Firearm Homicide Per-capita Deaths by State Legislatures’ Party

Chart 2 – Firearm Homicide Per-capita Deaths for Four Most Populous States (CA, FL, NY, TX)