Does the "Age" Issue Age Well?

In politics “Age” has been an issue for most of my life. That “Age” is an issue seems to be mostly an issue for presidents, though there may be some occasional other race here and there where it comes up. But I am sure that during the 2024 election campaigns that “Age” was and is an issue that is always there in the background and occasionally taking center stage. Now that “Age” has mattered in elections is only meaningful if you understand the context of the issue; and depending on your age or my age may or may not be that many data points. For the sack of this discussion, let’s assume that we go back to what are often called the “modern” elections, that is 1960’s Kennedy (43)* versus Nixon (47). [* age at inauguration.]

If you didn’t know, both were the youngest candidates for their parties ever since. How much this ‘youth’ event occurred because there was literally a generational shift in politics and politicians after World War II is unclear. Nonetheless, the “Age” issue surfaced but in the positive context of America having new and youthful leaders for the nation’s future.

How things have changed! “Age” was very much an issue for 2024, particularly when it was Biden (82) vs Trump (78). Then, many people wanted someone younger for both parties. Circumstances around the “Age” issue was potent enough to cause Biden to withdraw and Harris (60) to become the Democrat’s candidate. Now there’s an age-difference factor but it’s less clearly as much a focal point among the population or voters.

In prior contests where there was an age-difference factor, Reagan was 13 and 17 years older than his opponents. Reagan even successfully dispelled the age-factor or in the second campaign turned the age-factor into a punch-line which voters thought of as funny and not spending much if any time on the question of: “Does age matter here.” As he won both races, it was not significant enough to matter then.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that ‘youth’ may not have its advantages. Bill Clinton (46, 50) beat two opponents who were 22 and 23 years his senior. Obama bested two opponents by being 31 and 14 years their junior. “Age” many not have been as prominent a concern as it is/was, but there appears to be some effect or ‘age’ is may be a proxy for some other attribute or factor which does make an impact upon voters’ decisions.

Consider the following. On average Democratic candidates that have won the presidency are 10 years younger than Republicans winning candidates. If we exclude Biden as an outlier that become 14 years younger.

If “Age” is a factor, this raises questions about how the voters and public understands and thinks about a candidate’s age; of if they don’t think so much analytically about age but rather more emotionally or based on stereotypical themes.

So, what might we be able to ‘know’ about “age” as an issue for candidates (presidential or otherwise)? Actually, there might be more to ‘know’ than is known or thought about by most people. The following facts for instance provide some information that applies to our current candidates:

• Life Expectancy in US population:  Average of 77.5 years

o   Male Life Expectancy:  73.5 years

o    Female Life Expectancy: 79.3 years

• Probability of being alive in 4 years given age Jan. 2025:

o   Males 79 years old:                      69%

o   Females – 60 years old:              93%

If “Age” is a stand-in / proxy for “cognitive impairment” then does it “inform” us about different risks to our officials during their term(s) in office? While there is no way to know how a statistical factor may apply to any given individual, it does provide a factor that could be considered or even assessed when it comes to evaluating a candidate. This would be one reason that it might actually be a good idea to assess / test candidates that are within a few years of given milestones.

What do we know about “cognitive impairment” and “Age”? Well, approximately two thirds of Americans are subject to some cognitive impairment around 70 years old on average. More severe forms of “cognitive impairment” that is, dementia occur later in life; and yes, it does differ by gender. The age and degree for males versus females are:

• Age at first incident of any impairment

o   Males – 70 years

o   Females – 73 years

• Age at first incident of Dementia

o   Males – 79 years

o   Females – 83 years

Certainly there is a risk associated with our candidates’ age, but it is left to everyone to make their own personal and subjective assessments of something as nebulous  as “cognitive impairment” since we do not expect, require, or have a process for providing any information to the public. It’s thus more or less as informative as not knowing how knowledgeable a candidate is on any number of dimensions, topics, issues, or facts. And yet, I doubt that most voters would say that they would not be concerned about a candidate that does exhibit signs of “cognitive impairment”; unless perhaps it were overridden by some other more potent factor, like party alignment.